Bank of America’s quarterly results are impressive, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on October 15

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major futures rose together, with the Dow futures rising 0.30%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.46%, and the Nasdaq futures rising 0.65%. Germany's DAX index rose 0.02%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.38%, France's CAC 40 index rose 2.30%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 1.28%.

2. Interpretation of market news

Bank of America’s quarterly results are impressive, and investment banking business has become an engine of growth

⑴ Bank of America’s net profit in the third quarter reached US$8.5 billion, a significant increase from US$6.9 billion in the same period last year. ⑵ Earnings per share were US$1.06, far exceeding US$0.81 in the same period last year, and the performance exceeded market expectations. ⑶Investment banking business has become the main driving force, and large-scale transaction consulting has contributed substantial income. ⑷ As the second largest bank in the United States, its investment banking department has gained a lot from its huge transaction advisory business. ⑸In the three months ended September 30, all businesses showed steady development. ⑹Financial report data shows that the investment banking business has strong recovery momentum, driving overall profitability to improve.

U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the market awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve

⑴ U.S. Treasury yields edged lower in midday trading in Europe, continuing the downward trend since the Chairman of the Federal Reserve hinted at an interest rate cut in October. ⑵The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve’s Yellow Book, which will be released at 02:00 on Thursday morning. This report is an overview of the economic conditions of various regions. ⑶ Goldman Sachs analysts expressed concern about the evolution of labor demand and corporate expectations for activity growth.information. ⑷The decline in long-term government bond yields is more obvious, but the overall fluctuation is relatively limited. ⑸The two-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell 0.5 basis points to 3.473%. ⑹ The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell 0.9 basis points to 4.012%. ⑺The 30-year government bond yield fell 1.3 basis points to 4.609%. ⑻The yields of all maturities fell simultaneously, reflecting the market's continued expectations for a shift in monetary policy.

Morgan Stanley’s Q3 stock trading revenue soared 35%, surpassing Goldman Sachs to regain the top spot

Morgan Stanley’s third-quarter stock trading revenue significantly exceeded expectations, outperforming its peers amid market volatility caused by Trump’s policies. According to the financial report released on Wednesday, Morgan Stanley's third-quarter stock trading revenue surged 35% to $4.12 billion, much higher than analysts' forecast of a 6.6% increase, and also exceeded Goldman Sachs' $3.74 billion in the same period. Goldman Sachs has dominated global stock trading in recent years, with Morgan Stanley trying to regain the top spot. The investment banking business also performed well, with fee income increasing by 44% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. Its massive wealth management unit attracted $81 billion in new capital during the quarter, with a pre-tax profit margin of 30%, also higher than analysts' estimates.

Putin held talks with Syrian regime leaders. Syria: Interested in restarting relations with Russia

On October 15, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks with visiting Syrian regime leader Ahmed Sala at the Kremlin. The two sides discussed the current status and development prospects of relations between Russia and Syria in the fields of politics, economy, trade, and humanities, as well as the recent situation in the Middle East. Putin reiterated the friendly and strong relations between Syria and Russia. Putin said that Russia always puts the interests of the Syrian people first in its relations with Syria. Putin pointed out that Syria is going through difficult times, but the recent parliamentary elections will strengthen cooperation between various political forces. Salad thanked Putin for the reception. He pointed out that Russia and Syria have historical connections. Sala also said that Syria intends to restart relations with Russia.

BlackRock led the $40 billion acquisition of Aligned Data Center, the largest data center deal in the AI ​​era

Investors led by GIP, the global infrastructure investment platform of BlackRock (BLK.N), agreed to acquire Aligned Data Centers at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, including debt. MGX, the artificial intelligence investment arm of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment, will co-finance GIP, according to a statement released on Wednesday. The buyer will acquire the xn--xm-5s9cx14e.company from Macquarie Asset Management. The deal is the largest data center acquisition in history and signals that investors are increasing their bets on the infrastructure dividends brought by artificial intelligence. Aligned, headquartered in Texas, operates in the United States and South America, with a total of 50 campuses and 78 data centers under management and under construction. In January this year, the xn--xm-5s9cx14e.company received more than $12 billion from investors including Macquarie Management FundEquity and Debt xn--xm-5s9cx14e.commitments.

Many U.S. news organizations boycotted the Pentagon’s new interview restrictions

⑴ The U.S. Department of Defense issued new regulations to significantly restrict media coverage of the Pentagon and required the media to sign an informed document before the 14th. ⑵ At least 30 news organizations refused to sign the news gathering policy agreement, warning that this move may lead to xn--xm-5s9cx14e.comprehensive damage to coverage of the US military. ⑶ According to previous statements by the Ministry of Defense, media reporters who refuse to sign the agreement may be disqualified from entering the Pentagon for interviews.

The UK 10-year government bond yield fell to a ten-week low

⑴ The UK 10-year government bond yield fell to 4.553%, the lowest level in ten weeks. ⑵After central bank governor Andrew Bailey made dovish remarks, market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England increased. ⑶ Bailey pointed out that the British economy is operating "below potential levels" and the labor market is showing signs of weakness. ⑷The unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in the three months to August, the highest level since May 2021. ⑸ Market expectations are that the Bank of England may cut interest rates by 25 basis points as early as February next year, and may cut interest rates again in the third quarter of 2026. ⑹ Bailey emphasized the tension between continued inflation risks and a weak job market, and the timing of future policy adjustments remains uncertain. ⑺ Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will announce the budget on November 26, and is expected to announce spending cuts and possible tax increases. ⑻The move is aimed at rebuilding fiscal space and appeasing bond investors.

India’s trade deficit expanded significantly to US$32.15 billion in September

⑴ India’s merchandise trade deficit surged to US$32.15 billion in September, xn--xm-5s9cx14e.compared with US$20.8 billion in the same period last year, the largest deficit since November 2024. ⑵Import volume increased by 23.8% year-on-year to US$68.53 billion, mainly driven by gold imports. Although gold prices hit a record high, import volume still nearly doubled month-on-month. ⑶ Export volume increased by 5.2% year-on-year to US$36.38 billion. The growth rate was relatively moderate and may be affected by the delay in the US-India trade agreement. ⑷The United States accounts for about 20% of India's merchandise exports, and the slow progress of trade agreements has restricted exports. ⑸ Due to strong gold imports, solid energy demand and continued reliance on imports of electronic products and capital goods, the trade deficit is expected to remain high.

Germany successfully issued 1.182 billion euros of 30-year federal bonds

⑴ Germany sold 1.182 billion euros of 30-year federal bonds with a coupon rate of 2.90% through an additional auction. ⑵The average yield of this 30-year bond is 3.17%, xn--xm-5s9cx14e.compared with 3.08% in the previous issuance. ⑶The bidding multiple is 1.4 times, which is higher than the previous 1.2 times.

The Eurozone’s industrial output fell by 1.2% month-on-month in August, which was better than market expectations

⑴The Eurozone’s industrial output fell by 1.2% month-on-month in August, reversing the upwardly revised 0.5% growth in July, and better than market expectations of a 1.6% decline. ⑵The 2.2% decrease in capital goods output (previous increase of 1.7%) was the main drag factor. ⑶Output of durable consumer goods fell by 1.6%(the previous value increased by 1.2%), and energy output fell by 0.6% (the previous value decreased by 1.7%). ⑷The output of intermediate products fell by 0.2% (the previous value increased by 0.5%), and the output of non-durable consumer goods almost stagnated and only increased by 0.1% (the previous value increased by 1.8%). ⑸Among the major economies, Germany's output fell by 5.2% (the previous value increased by 1.5%), and Italy fell by 2.4% (the previous value increased by 0.4%). ⑹ France’s output fell by 0.7% (the previous value fell by 0.1%), and Spain’s output fell by 0.1% (the previous value fell by 0.5%). ⑺Netherlands output increased by 2.3% (previous value fell by 1.3%). ⑻Industrial output increased by 1.1% year-on-year in August, which was slower than the 2.0% increase in July.

Germany responds to labor shortages through the Retirees Employment Incentive Act

⑴The German cabinet passed a draft law on Wednesday that would allow retirees to earn up to 2,000 euros in tax-free monthly working income to encourage continued work after retirement. ⑵ This policy will take effect in early 2026 and is expected to cause an annual tax loss of 890 million euros to the state between 2026 and 2030. ⑶The population report of the German Interior Ministry shows that by 2030, Germany’s working population will decrease by 6.3 million people xn--xm-5s9cx14e.compared with 2010. ⑷The reduction in the labor force will lead to a decrease in per capita GDP because the number of workers corresponding to each retiree decreases. ⑸ Many European countries are responding to worker shortages and pressure on their pension systems through pension reforms, but this is a politically controversial issue. ⑹ French Prime Minister Sebastian Le Cornu has suspended the landmark pension reform in 2023 until after the 2027 presidential election on Tuesday.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1624, an increase of 0.14%. Before the New York session, the price of (EURUSD) has declined in recent intra-day trading due to the stability of the key resistance level of 1.1630, which has been strengthened by the price touching its EMA50 resistance, while negative signals have appeared on the Relative Strength Index after reaching overbought levels, with the main bearish trend taking over in the short term and the price trading along the trend line.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose and is now at 1.3354, an increase of 0.26%. Before the New York session, the price of (GBPUSD) rose in the last intraday session, supported by a positive signal from the Relative Strength Index, which retested the key resistance level of 1.3340, while continued negative pressure as the price traded below the EMA50 further consolidated the stability of the main short trend in the short term and traded along the trend line.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose and was now trading at 4182.28, an increase of 0.97%. Before the opening of the New York market, the price (of gold) rose in recent intraday levels and reached the main resistance level of $4,200 for the first time. This resistance level corresponds to the target expected in our previous analysis. With the main bull trend taking over in the short term, this suggests the potential for a negative divergence to form, which could temporarily push the price towards a potential bearish corrective rally if resistance remains unbroken.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 52.594, an increase of 2.52%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) prices rose in the last trading session, supported by a positive signal from the relative strength indicator, above the key resistance of $52.50 to confirm a break of this resistance amid the dominance of the short-term primary bullish trend, and to trade alongside the supportive secondary trendline of this trajectory.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now trading at 59.150, an increase of 0.80%. Crude oil prices fell in the final trading session before the New York market opened, after unloading oversold conditions on the relative strength indicator, putting pressure on its upcoming trading, and the bullish momentum it restored in the previous session was weak.

4. Institutional view

Capital Economics: Japan’s political uncertainty is unlikely to be a drag on the country’s bonds and stock markets

Thomas Mathews, head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Economics, said in the report that Japan’s political uncertainty is unlikely to be a drag on the country’s bonds and stock markets, and may even bring a short-term boost. Despite the split between the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, markets were largely indifferent. Mathews noted that investors may expect the turmoil to be short-lived and that newly elected Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takaichi will eventually become prime minister - which is Capital Economics' base-case scenario. He added that while it could weaken interest in Japanese assets if policy uncertainty persists, it ultimately depends on the impact on the economy. However, a more fragmented government could pose risks in the longer term – especially if it hinders corporate governance reforms that could help boost profitability.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Bank of America's quarterly performance is outstanding, spot gold, silver, crude oil, foreign exchange short-term trend analysis on October 15th", which is carefully xn--xm-5s9cx14e.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor, hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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