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The U.S. government shutdown has entered a "blowing period", and the bond and financial markets have moved ahead of schedule

Wonderful introduction:

If the sea loses the rolling of huge waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the wild dance of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its true course, it will lose its meaning.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The U.S. government shutdown has entered a "blowing period," and the bond and financial markets have moved ahead of schedule." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On Monday (October 13), the U.S. dollar index strengthened during the day, while spot gold simultaneously touched $4,073.81 per ounce. This pattern of rising together is quite rare in the short term, reflecting that the market's risk aversion preference still prevails. At the same time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 2.63% in a single day last Friday and closed at 4.034%. The 2-year yield also fell by 1.89% to 3.527%. There were obvious signs of capital inflows into the bond market. The government shutdown has entered its 13th day, and the deadlock in negotiations has heightened uncertainty, but Federal Reserve officials have been vocal this week and may provide some guidance. Overall, the fall in U.S. bond yields has provided support for the U.S. dollar, but it has also pushed up gold through safe-haven channels. Short-term fluctuations are expected to revolve around policy signals.

Pressure points in the U.S. bond market and signs of capital reflow

Seven temporary spending bill votes have failed, and the next one is scheduled for tomorrow (October 14), but analysts from well-known institutions generally believe that the probability of passing it is low. Finance Minister Bessant's latest statement further strengthened this expectation. He pointed out that the situation is becoming serious and has begun to affect economic activity, including suspending non-essential payments to prioritize stabilizing the agricultural sector. Many market observers shared similar views, believing that this marked a shift from the hard-fought phase of the previous two weeks to a blowout phase, but Trump's recent tariff rhetoric has clouded the prospects of opening the door.

From a technical perspective, the fall in the 10-year yield has touched near the recent support level, and may fluctuate in the 4.00%-4.05% range in the short term. Historical data goes back to the shutdown event in 2015, when the yield curve also briefly flattened, but funds eventually returned to the bond market to avoid risk. In the current environment, the shutdown has led to delays in the release of official economic data, and the statistical window will be enlarged this week.Bond market volatility. Federal Reserve officials have a busy schedule. New Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will make her first speech tomorrow, Powell will share his views in the afternoon tomorrow, and Stephen Millan will hold four consecutive events from Wednesday to Thursday. These signals are expected to be directly transmitted to the bond market: if the speech is dovish, yields may fall further, attracting more capital inflows; conversely, if the resilience of inflation is emphasized, the curve may steepen. Some veteran traders point out that this data vacuum has turned the bond market into a safe-haven anchor, and there are increasingly clear signs of a shift of funds from equity to fixed income.

This dynamic in the bond market does not occur in a vacuum, but is intertwined with global uncertainty. As the shutdown enters its third week, large-scale "Reduction in Force" notices have been issued to federal agencies, affecting thousands of employees. Reports from well-known institutions show that in the history of such events, bond market capital inflows often precede the economic impact, and the probability of the yield center moving downward in the short term is high. This paved the way for subsequent trends in the U.S. dollar and gold: a weakening bond market strengthened the relative attractiveness of the U.S. dollar, but also activated gold's safe-haven premium.

The U.S. dollar index: a two-way see-saw under the bond market signal

The U.S. dollar index strengthened to 99.2139 during the day. On the surface, it seemed stable, but upon closer inspection, its motivation was mainly due to the support effect of the fall in U.S. bond yields. On the 240-minute chart, the index has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands at 99.0468 and is approaching the upper track of 99.5090, indicating the initial emergence of bullish momentum. The MACD indicator DIFF line of 0.1596 is slightly lower than DEA0.2002, and the columnar line of -0.0812 indicates that the short-term momentum is slightly weak, but the pressure level of the previous high of 99.5549 has not yet been effectively broken, and the previous low of 99.00 provides a downward buffer. At a fundamental level, the return of funds in the bond market directly benefits the U.S. dollar. As a reserve currency, it is extremely sensitive to yields: for every 10 basis points drop in the 10-year yield, the U.S. dollar index often receives additional support of 0.1%-0.2%.

The continued fermentation of the shutdown incident is the core catalyst for this transmission. Delays in Treasury data meant that employment and inflation indicators were absent this week, leaving markets to rely on verbal guidance from Fed officials. Powell's speech tomorrow is expected to focus on the policy path. If he reiterates gradual interest rate cuts, bond market yields may continue to fall, and the US dollar will rise slightly amid safe-haven demand. Some institutional accounts emphasized that although Trump's tariff remarks caused short-term concerns, the shutdown deadlock more directly amplified the bond-foreign exchange linkage: funds avoided equity and moved to dollar-denominated assets. Historically, by analogy with the shutdown period of 2018-2019, the U.S. dollar index once fluctuated and rose by 10%-15% in a similar data vacuum. The current 99.00-99.55 range may become the main battlefield this week.

Technical aspects further confirm this logic. The proximity of the Bollinger Band upper limit suggests that the index has the potential to break higher, but the negative value of the MACD column reminds bulls to be wary of callbacks. If bond yields hold the 4.00% mark, the U.S. dollar index may test the 100 integer level in the short term; conversely, if officials speak unexpectedly hawkish, a rebound in yields will quickly suppress the U.S. dollar's momentum. In general, debtThe market has become a "barometer" of the dollar's variables: its fall has provided support, but the economic uncertainty caused by the shutdown has limited the upside space, and short-term seesaws will dominate the market.

Spot gold: a magnifying glass for the bond market’s hedging effect

Spot gold rebounded strongly to US$4,073.81 per ounce. Under the appearance of rising with the US dollar, the hedging effect transmitted by the bond market is quietly dominating the trend. The 240-minute chart shows that the price has crossed the middle Bollinger Band track of 4021.09, pointing directly to the upper track of 4095.94, while the lower track of 3946.24 is far below, providing solid support. The MACD indicator DIFF26.66 is higher than DEA22.14, and the bar line 9.02 has turned positive, confirming the acceleration of bull momentum. The breakthrough of the previous high and record high of 4084.97 is a foregone conclusion, and the previous low of 4000 is more like a distant memory. This pattern is different from the conventional negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and gold. It is a capital spillover effect caused by the fall in bond market yields: investors use U.S. debt as a transit point amid the uncertainty of the shutdown, further pushing up the allocation demand for gold.

The fundamental drivers are obvious. On the 13th day of the shutdown, Finance Minister Bessant’s warning that the economic impact was beginning to appear and payments were suspended directly ignited the spark of risk aversion. Many traders regard this as a typical case of bond-gold linkage: Although the decline in yields is good for the US dollar, the vacuum of closing data amplifies the contraction of global risk appetite, and gold, as the ultimate safe-haven asset, benefits. The Fed's speech this week may exacerbate this effect: if Paulson or Powell releases dovish signals, bond market capital inflows will accelerate, and the gold safe-haven premium will rise further. Historical closing period data shows that gold has gained an average of 3%-5% under similar circumstances, and the current upper track of 4095.94 has become an immediate target.

Technical aspects have strengthened the logical chain of bond market transmission. The expansion of the Bollinger Bands suggests increased volatility, and the MACD golden cross pattern is solid. Bulls may take advantage of the weakening bond market to challenge the 4100 mark. However, it should be noted that if yields unexpectedly stabilize, gold's momentum may be temporarily suppressed. Overall, the bond market has become a "magnifying glass" for the trend of gold: its decline has not only failed to suppress gold prices, but has amplified upward momentum through risk aversion channels. The positive linkage between gold and bonds is expected to continue in the short term.

The next 2-3 days: The fluctuations under policy signals will test expectations

Looking to the next 2-3 days, the U.S. bond yield center may fluctuate within a narrow range of 4.00%-4.10%. The airing period of the shutdown negotiations will test the market’s patience. If the vote fails again on October 14, the return of funds to the bond market is expected to accelerate. With the support of the bond market, the probability of the U.S. dollar index testing the 99.50-100.00 range has risen to 60%. However, the dove-hawk divergence in the speeches of Federal Reserve officials may trigger an intraday correction. Spot gold, taking advantage of the risk aversion trend, is expected to continue to break through the upper track, and the short-term momentum of testing $4,100 has not yet been exhausted.

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The U.S. government shutdown has entered a "blowing period", and the bond and financial markets have moved ahead of schedule

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