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market analysis
Global market prospects under data vacuum and policy game?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Global market prospects under data vacuum and policy game?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
A series of major economic data and key events that influence the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates will be unveiled. From Chinese trade data to crude oil market reports, from speeches by central bank officials to global financial summits, each event may trigger violent market fluctuations. Investors need to plan ahead to deal with potential risks and opportunities.
The central bank’s voice leads the way, and foreign exchange positions are for reference
On Saturday (October 11), the 2025 FOMC voting xn--xm-5s9cx14e.committee and St. Louis Fed Chairman Musallem delivered a speech. European Central Bank Governing Council member Cazacs delivered a speech. At the same time, foreign exchange traders can go to the CFTC (U.S. xn--xm-5s9cx14e.commodity Futures Trading xn--xm-5s9cx14e.commission) official website to check the futures positions of various currencies.
China’s import and export data begins, global finance gathers, and highlights of the annual meeting are frequent
Starting Monday (October 13), the World Bank and IMF will hold the 2025 Autumn Annual Meeting. By October 18, world financial leaders will gather here. Given that the Bank of England has already begun to discuss the valuation of U.S. stocks, there should be a lot to watch at this annual meeting.
At the same time, China released its trade account for September. China’s import and export data are an effective leading indicator of domestic corporate profits. Later, OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report.
Australian data goes first, and the European boom follows up
On Tuesday (October 14), the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting. On September 30, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.6%. After that, Australia will also release the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index. Due to the export attributes of Australia and New Zealand, many times the consumption data of Australia and New Zealand can serve as leading indicators of the world economy..
After that, the UK will announce wage growth and unemployment rate, and then Germany will announce CPI, followed by the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index of the Eurozone and Germany. This data has been steadily rising in recent months. In the afternoon, the IEA released its monthly crude oil market report. On the same day, South Africa will announce the year-on-year changes in its gold production in August. In the evening, Paulson, the 2026 FOMC voting xn--xm-5s9cx14e.committee member and Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, delivered a speech.
China-U.S. data game, intertwined geopolitics
China released PPI and CPI on Wednesday (October 15), but the focus of the day was also affected by the U.S. government shutdown, whether the U.S. Bureau of Labor will release the U.S. year-on-year CPI data for September as scheduled. If possible, will the U.S. non-farm payroll data for September be released? However, currently, due to the U.S. government shutdown, these data cannot be released.
These are key data on U.S. inflation and growth that directly affect the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates, casting a shadow over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the end of October.
At the same time, the Governor of the Bank of England and the 2025 FOMC voting xn--xm-5s9cx14e.committee and Boston Fed Chairman Collins will deliver speeches. On that day, the defense ministers of NATO countries will participate in the annual defense meeting to discuss NATO security priorities.
European and American policy signals, but the lack of data leaves variables
On Thursday (October 16), European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech, and the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on U.S. economic conditions.
The United States announced API inventories, and it was originally planned to release horrific data that day, namely U.S. retail sales data, which is one of the data that the Federal Reserve attaches great importance to, as well as the number of U.S. initial claims and continuing unemployment claims, and U.S. PPI data. However, if the U.S. government is still shut down on Thursday and no special circumstances arise, these data will be absent.
European zone inflation data xn--xm-5s9cx14e.comes to an end, and global policies speak out
On Friday (October 17), the United States announced changes in EIA crude oil inventories, and the euro zone announced CPI. In the early morning of the same day, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will hold a press conference, followed by speeches by Bank of Canada Governor MacCallum and Bank of England Chief Economist Peele.
Risk reminder: Geographical and policy variables need to be focused on
In addition to core economic data, investors also need to be wary of three major potential risks: First, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and domestic political variables in Japan and France may trigger rising risk aversion, which is good for gold and Safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar; second, if central bank officials such as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Reserve Bank of Australia deliver policy reversal signals in their speeches, market expectations may be quickly revised, triggering short-term fluctuations in corresponding currencies; third, if international trade frictions escalate again, it will suppress sentiment in global risk assets.
How will the release of US economic data be affected?
Staff at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are likely to face furloughs. During the 2013 government shutdown, the two monthly employment reports and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report were rescheduled.release time, disrupting economic data releases for the remainder of the year.
The most direct impact will be reflected in the employment report after October 3. If the shutdown is short, the Fed may be able to obtain non-farm payroll data before its policy meeting on October 28-29.
Given that weekly initial unemployment claims data are released at the state level, this data may continue to be released normally. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release nonfarm payrolls data, the market will pay closer attention to private sector data such as the ADP (Automated Data Processing xn--xm-5s9cx14e.company) monthly employment report, and Fed policymakers may also rely more on their own analysis of ADP data.
If consumer price index (CPI) data cannot be released by the end of October, it is expected that the U.S. Treasury Department will publish an alternative index based on the recently released inflation value for use in pricing Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and CPI swaps. Once the shutdown is over, the release of relevant data will be delayed.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Global Market Outlook under Data Vacuum and Policy Game?", which was carefully xn--xm-5s9cx14e.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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