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In an era where “everything you buy goes up”, where does gold’s pricing anchor come from?

Wonderful introduction:

Optimism is the line of egrets that go straight up to the sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails on the side of the sunken boat, optimism is the luxuriant grass blowing in the wind at the head of Parrot Island, optimism is the little bits of falling red that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: In the era of "everything you buy goes up, where does the pricing anchor of gold xn--xm-5s9cx14e.come from". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

During the North American session on Thursday (October 9), spot gold traded around a high of $4,050. The price on the previous trading day once reached $4059.07, effectively crossing the psychological barrier of $4000 for the first time. It once retreated to around 4000 and was pulled back again during the session, showing that the bulls were switching between rising and digesting.

Fundamentals:

The main logic of this round of rise is not a single "panic buying", but a rare liquidity story of "risk preference and hedging demand": the equity market and the US dollar are strengthening simultaneously, reflecting the xn--xm-5s9cx14e.complex mixture of monetary easing expectations and growth uncertainty. For gold, this "multiple motivations" brings trend flexibility - when the market bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice during the year, nominal and real yields are under pressure, and the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing assets declines, gold will naturally benefit. At the same time, geopolitical tail risks remain: the situation in the Middle East remains volatile after the phased relaxation, and uncertainty has not been cleared; political changes in Europe and Japan are also extending the life of "defensive positions."

Another "slow variable" at the macro level xn--xm-5s9cx14e.comes from the official sector: global central banks continue to accumulate gold reserves at a high level, reflecting the long-term demand for fiat currency credit cycles and reserve diversification. This kind of structural buying is not based on short-term fluctuations and provides a trend base for gold. The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its ninth day, and the release of key macro data (NFP, initial requests, etc.) has been delayed, causing both the market and the central bank itself to fall into "low visibility." When model uncertainty increases, risk budgets will naturally tilt toward gold.

In terms of policy xn--xm-5s9cx14e.communication, the New York Fed President’s dovish statement and the FOMC minutes stated that “most officials support further interest rate cuts this year but are wary of inflation.”The tone of "stubborn" has consolidated the market consensus of "the direction of easing remains unchanged but the rhythm is wait-and-see". This expectation - a rare xn--xm-5s9cx14e.combination of "softening yields, a strong dollar, and risk assets that have not ebbed" - explains why gold can remain strong despite the general rise in all assets: it is both "insurance" and a part of "liquidity trading".

Finally, bond yields "performed mediocrely" "Light" has increased the relative attractiveness of gold; while the extended uncertainty of the government shutdown has created gaps in the economic "soft data-hard data" chain, strengthening the need to xn--xm-5s9cx14e.combat tail risks. Overall, the fundamentals are still bullish, but the catalysts that trigger short-term fluctuations (the shutdown process, data recovery, geopolitical news) are also intensive, causing path fluctuations.

Technical aspect:

The daily chart shows that spot gold has embarked on a strong upward channel since mid-to-late September, and has recently shown a "Bollinger Band walking". The upper Bollinger track is 4041.60, the middle Bollinger track is 3759.87, and the lower Bollinger track is 3478.13; the current price is running above the upper track, indicating a strong trend and sufficient momentum, but it also indicates that short-term "over-rising-mean reversion" risks are accumulating. At the horizontal price level, 3890.00 has become the near-end static support, which is not only the reference for backtesting after the breakthrough, but also the threshold for the market to maintain a long structure; the middle track 3759.87 further below is the dividing line between the strength and weakness of the mid-term trend.

On the momentum side, MACD’s DIFF is 122.78, DEA is 105.34, and the histogram is 34.90, showing that the bullish kinetic energy is still amplifying and has not yet become clear. The apparent top divergence is out of shape; however, RSI (14) has reached the extreme range of 87.39. The typical "overbought + acceleration" xn--xm-5s9cx14e.combination often brings high fluctuations in the time dimension to resolve the indicator pressure, and then the trend wins. If the subsequent K-line has a long upper shadow line or the entity shortens, you need to guard against the rhythm switch of "acceleration→depletion→retracement"; on the contrary, as long as the price continues to rise along the upper track and the retracement is quickly recovered by the 3890.00-4041.60 range, the trend structure of "Bollinger Band expansion-mean upward shift" will still prevail.

Market sentiment observation:

The sentiment level shows a "triple resonance":

First, "easing trading" and "hedging trading" are active at the same time. The uptick in the equity market has sent an optimistic signal, while the government shutdown, Lack of data and geographical variables have strengthened the need to allocate gold, forming a typical scenario of "resonance between greed and fear".

Secondly, the "empty mentality" is on the rise. The strong short squeeze after breaking through 4000 caused short covering and trend following orders, and the short-term volume can be considerable; but when the RSI climbed to the extreme range, the marginal efficiency of the chasing orders began to decrease, and it was easy to "shrink the volume and increase or the price strength and volume were weak", and a technical change of hands was inevitable.

Third, “the consensus is not fully priced.” The market is still divided on the pace of interest rate cuts, and is also unsure about the stability of political issues in the Middle East and Europe. Under this incomplete consensus, gold's "insurance attribute" still has a premium, but pricing will be more dependent on the pace of news shocks and data recovery. The overall mood is positive but notOverheating, trending towards "highly volatile bull market sentiment", with increased tolerance for retracement and greater sensitivity to breaking news.

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In an era where “everything you buy goes up”, where does gold’s pricing anchor come from?

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In an era where “everything you buy goes up”, where does gold’s pricing anchor come from?

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